Before the March 4th general elections, Kenyans were warned
about impending consequences of their democratic choices. Kenyans are still
waiting for the consequences six months down the line. Some think that Jonny
Carson’s warning was far-fetched.
However, I tend to disagree with those that think that Carson wrong.
Carson was very right. If you are a keen observer, you will note that some of
the consequences are already here with us.
The immediate and the most notable consequence was that the Cases that
Kenyatta and Ruto were and are still facing at the ICC ceased to be personal.
Prior to the election, Kenyatta had argued that his case was personal and that
Kenyans needed not to worry about how he would serve them in the office of the
president while at the same time fighting with the monster ICC. However,
nothing could be farther from the reality. The fact is that the process and the
end results of the ICC process will affect the country Kenya in one way or the
other.
Opinion is divided as to whether Kenyatta should be tried in the Hague
based court while still in power or not. African Union has brutally attacked
the court and labelled it neo-colonialist. The Kenyan parliament is in the
process of withdrawing the country from the Rome statute. With all these
happening within six months, only a fool can continue buying Kenyatta’s theory
that his case is personal.
The most emotive issue has been that of whether Kenyatta should continue
cooperating with ICC or not. I have heard very logical arguments from across
the divide. Up to now, I’m still ambivalent as to whether he should continue
cooperating with the court especially if it demands that he be within the court
room though out the trial. It might be necessary for the victims who need
justice, but what do forty million Kenyans stand to gain? And if you look at
the other side of the coin, what does Kenyans stand to lose?
Kenyatta has so far not commented on the issue, but certainly, he is
thinking about something. So, what exactly is in Kenyatta’s mind? As a
politician, I’m sure that he is already planning ahead. I can confidently say
many would never want to hear; 2017 is on his mind .However, becoming the best
is easier than remaining the best. 2017 will be trickier for him than 2013.
Kenyatta knows that his future in politics rest squarely on how well he will
implement his own manifesto, forget about the ICC fiasco. After all, he won the
election as an ICC suspect. He can still win it even as an international
fugitive if only he fully implements his manifesto.
Implementing a manifesto is not a joke. That is the greatest burden on
Kenyatta’s shoulders. Although he has a cabinet in place, it is impossible to
implement the manifesto without close supervision. Every decision must be analyzed
critically, and every assignment needs follow up. If he is not around for one
or two months, chances are that he will find a golden berg of its kind. The
manifesto implementation process will slow down and yet time is not in his
side.
Kenyatta can still save his political career by refusing to attend his
trial at The Hague. By so doing, he will have ample time to coordinate his
government, spearhead development agenda and implement his manifesto fully.
That is the only way he can have a smooth ride come 2017, and in fact, that is
the best he can give to this country.
But again, we have to worry about how ICC will react if Kenyatta snubs
the trial. If ICC issues an arrest warrant, who will arrest Kenyatta? Aren’t
Bashir and Kony still walking free? The arrest warrant will not affect Kenyatta
significantly in political sense. But will it affect Kenya? Certainly it will.
But how will Kenya be affected? That is debatable.
From whichever angle you look at it, you realize that this is fine
balancing act. The future of the country lies in the balance. Kenyatta’s
problem became Kenya’s problem on 4th of March, 2013.
