By Maina Munuhe
Kenya`s political landscape is dynamic in nature. A quick glance in history reveals that political
coalitions are usually founded on common selfish interests, along closer ties of ethnic nature and
at times geographical proximity of voting blocks. The past two and a half decades have seen the
inevitable transition from the single party ` KANU where every political mind belonged` by
birth` to a more complex Kenyan multi-party system founded on ethnic principles often confused
with the essence of democracy. The famous” Kibaki-Tosha “concession by close competitor
Raila Odinga was never anything close to an alliance but a softened stance in the hope for a
favour. In fact, the luo nation was deceived to imagine that Kibaki would also say “Raila Tosha”
and peacefully hand over the sword. Guided by his intelligence and wisdom, and knowing very
well the course the electoral events will take, Mwai Kibaki silently tiptoed home.
coalitions are usually founded on common selfish interests, along closer ties of ethnic nature and
at times geographical proximity of voting blocks. The past two and a half decades have seen the
inevitable transition from the single party ` KANU where every political mind belonged` by
birth` to a more complex Kenyan multi-party system founded on ethnic principles often confused
with the essence of democracy. The famous” Kibaki-Tosha “concession by close competitor
Raila Odinga was never anything close to an alliance but a softened stance in the hope for a
favour. In fact, the luo nation was deceived to imagine that Kibaki would also say “Raila Tosha”
and peacefully hand over the sword. Guided by his intelligence and wisdom, and knowing very
well the course the electoral events will take, Mwai Kibaki silently tiptoed home.
Some of the alliances were indeed predictable but the 2012 Kikuyu-Kalenjin nation alliance is
one whose structure cannot be justified with any substantial historical grounds of unity. Prior to
ascendance of Moi to power following the death of Mzee Kenyatta in 1978, Kenyatta`s allies and
close advisors sought to block Moi from taking over the mantles of power in the constant fear of
uncertainty that dwelt among them. The stubborn Moi took over and managed to steer the ship in
his often cited “prophetic wisdom” for two-and-a-half decades till 2002 when Emillio Kibaki
took over. The Nyayo regime had reached its zenith and time was ripe for a transition.
The kikuyu nation has always been consistent in electoral matters in the post-Nyayo political era.
Their support has never been divided except for a handful whose impact has proved negligible.
Like all other nations whose numbers count in voting issues, their principle in electoral matters
has always been one, “vote your own” and preserve “our interests”. The rhetoric question is
whose interests are protected and who benefits from power? A confused mind drunk with coffee-
house sociology might argue that at one point the Kikuyu nation was faced with the choice
between Uhuru Kenyatta , Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth but sober minds know that the latter
two were never in the kikuyu political succession equation.
Accordingly, one can predict that the Kikuyu nation will never rally behind Deputy President
William Ruto. Though the false alliance, created by a superficial unity resulting from the ICC
common dilemma will last past 2017, it will never see the eve of the 2022 elections. CORD has
been counting on the disintegration of the Jubilee alliance as the last card that will ever bring
opposition leader Raila Odinga to power come 2017. To quote David Oyola in his article “the
cries of a CORD supporter”, the incompetency within CORD and lack of preparedness will
definitely cost CORD yet another election to add to a chain which Kenyans are already familiar
with. The disorganization in the opposition, as Oyola argues has always been its downfall and
2017 will not be different. However, there is a chance for opposition to clinch power in 2022
because the Jubilee alliance will be dead then unless the Kikuyu raise a new “heir” who might be
too young to withstand the accumulated force of opposition.
The continued challenge to Ruto`s tribal legitimacy in the Rift-valley by Bomet Governor Isaac
Ruto and constant intra-party mutiny attempts posed by younger self-declared “community
protectors” such as Nandi hills legislator Keter all together point to weakening backyard support.
Ruto might walk free from Bensouda`s ICC hook but this will not impact on the outcome of the
2022 election. CORD`s victory will depend on whether it sustains its current unity and this can
only happen if Kalonzo Musyoka and Wetangula remain within the coalition and suppress their
lust for power longer. In the meantime, the Kikuyu-nation remains anxious due to the age-old
uncertainty of their future in the hands of “aliens”. Did you ever imagine Ruto as Kenyatta`s
successor?
