Considering the idiosyncratic variable (a mode of
behavior or way of thought specific to an individual) as a factor in political
decision making, Political scientists have agreed that the old tend to be
conservative in their thinking while the young tend to be radical and
adventurous in arriving at decision. In other words, the older the generation,
the higher the tendency to maintain the status
quo i.e. the lower the likelihood to change their modus operandi (mode of operation). Having introduced the fundamental
presumption in my hypothesis, I now turn to the analysis based on it.
The fact remains that the players in Raila’s 2007
campaigns from his backyard will be the ones spinning ball in 2017/18 (factors
like natural end of life held constant-call it ceteris paribus-for the learned). On the strategy end, I expect to
meet Prof. Larry Gumbe, Prof. Anyang’ Ny’ongo, Prof. Peter Wanyande and Dr.
Adams Oloo. On the political front I expect Jakoyo Midiwo, Otieno Kajwang’, Dr.
Oburu Odinga as the major political decision makers. All the above named were
part of the 2007 election campaigns-campaign strategy development and execution
in Raila’s camp.
The 2005 election was very key in propelling Raila
to being the force he was in 2007. The above being relatively conservative in
their ideologies it is highly probable that the strategy they will deploy
henceforth will be akin to the 2005 to 2007 strategy.
Rule
1: Isolate the GEMA voting Bloc
In 2005 referendum, almost all regions voted ‘NO’
to the constitution except the GEMA bloc which voted ‘YES’. This helped the
opposition propel the ideology that the GEMA region always votes against the
national interest and spirit. This gave impetus to the 41 against 1 strategy.
So serious was the strategy that it found its way to the 2013 presidential
debate and in 2014 in the so called Boycott of goods and services.
The strategy is to sneak the 40 percent of
national revenue to be allocated to counties. This will be the main issues in
the referendum and even if William Ruto says ‘NO’, the forces of devolution in
Rift Valley are too strong that it might hurt his standing in the Kalenjin
community. The likelihood of Rift Valley voting for the referendum even without
the blessings of the DP is very high. Other regions can be galvanized. With the
election of Moses Kuria, it is obvious that the president has more grip on his
backyard than any politician has in any region.
The likelihood of the GEMA bloc
voting with as the president directs is very high and CORD intends it to be so.
This will be a renewed prove on the CORD side that the GEMA region has voted on
its own against the rest. The referendum will be an isolation mission. It will
not be supported or opposed based on ideology-my argument is based on how much
it is already supported and opposed along coalition lies even before the
referendum questions can be formulated.
Rule
2: Use the referendum as a yardstick of government popularity:
The voting pattern of the country in 2005
referendum was identical to the voting trend in 2007 presidential elections
save for the Kamba voting bloc which was sliced by Kalonzo when Raila exited
ODM-Kenya (it is not Kalonzo who exited contrary to popular knowledge). Cord
will use the referendum to create a niche for itself. If it wins, for CORD it
will be an affirmation that elections were rigged but their patience for 2017
will bring a replica of the referendum victory.
The intense expectation by cord
supporters will be a time bomb. After the referendum, the government will have
to be worried about political survival and development may be compromised-all
this to cord’s political expedience in relation to showing the government the
failure card come 2017/8.
Rule
3: Further Isolation in implementation of strategy:
Cord has matured politically. In 2013, the attacks
on the Kalenjin and Kikuyu simultaneously had the resultant effect of uniting
the two further, both as victims of Odingaism. Now the strategy has changed in
the effort of wooing the Rift votes. Rift valley was the most pivotal voting bloc
and the most valuable in Raila’s political history and with value and loss
comes nostalgia. Raila has rolled his sleeves to ensure he penetrates the rift
valley once more. During the Saba Saba rally at Uhuru Park, selective criticism
was the order of the day with every speaker castigating the Mt. Kenya
personalities and none-absolutely none, castigated any leader from Kalenjin
land as directly as they did with Mt. Kenya. The mentality is that no matter
how much lenient cord can be towards Mt. Kenya region, penetration is mission
impossible hence by hitting the region harder, CORD has all to gain from other
regions and absolutely nothing to lose from the Mt. Kenya region.
However, Rift
Valley is not under lock and key per se as CORD views it as a potential
defector and game changer. This can only be propelled through the referendum.
Devolution will be everything in the referendum and the referendum campaigns
will be the platform for creating in-roads in Rift Valley. Isaac Ruto and
Alfred Keter will be the deadliest canons for the mission. Raila’s hopes in
penetrating the Rift explain the silence CORD has adopted on attacking partners
to Jubilee’s coalition-whether this will translate to 2017 is a matter of
speculation. In the campaigns, therefore, further isolation of Mt. Kenya will
be the end sought.
Rule
4: Is either us alone, us and you sharing, or none of us at all:
The 2017 elections will be the litmus test on our
brotherhood as a country. Whether the country learnt a lesson in 2007/8 or not
we shall have an answer then. In 2002, Kijana Wamalwa-peace be upon him-said there
are two groups in Kenya, Railamaniac and Railaphobic. How true that was is a
discussion for another day. With the trend as outlined above-isolation topping
the list-the 2017 elections may not evade the sad scales of Kikuyumaniac and
Kikuyuphobic (read GEMA). Despite the region of Uhuru’s running mate, people
will not see the Deputy presidency but the president himself and the phobics
will be saying ‘Not Again’ as the Maniacs will be saying ‘Retention’. With the
balkanization taking place, a close race is inevitable in 2017. IEBC-with the
same commissioners as it is-if not removed as expected, whichever results it
releases, however credible, will be disputed by CORD. The trend of undermining
the courts especially the Supreme Court has been too persistent to lack meaning
in the world of political expedience.
You don’t accept results of an electoral
body whose credibility you have rejected for five years and take your dispute
to a court you lost faith in five years ago(2013-2017). Power sharing is
archaic and will sound like a song from a power hungry individual-a tag Raila
has to fight and has been fighting since 1982. The option remains one, a
country divided in the middle that did not reconcile after 2007/8 and cannot
share power, can only be forced to form a transitional government to do what
‘was not done and supposedly cannot be done’ by either divide. CORD will call
for a transitional government hence the ‘is either us alone, us and you sharing
or none at all’ strategy. For in a transitional government cord has to be
represented equally.
Ochengo Onguso is a Graduate of Political Science and Public Administartion and Philosophy from The University of Nairobi. He is also a Law student from the same institution.
He is the Chairman of the Board of Directors, Intellectus Consultancy
melchym1@gmail.com
Ochengonguso@intellectusconsultancy.com
