Maina Dubois: The Paradox That Is Government Loans in University Education

It is no doubt that the cost of a college degree in Kenya has continued to soar despite the mushrooming of new and new colleges. With each dawn, nations are striving to achieve the required capacity; be it an adequate pool of engineers, planners, doctors, economists; a prerequisite for attaining the envisioned macro-economic stabilities, that is, low unemployment levels, single digit inflation level, maximum production levels etc.

As such, you would expect education to be the most affordable item yet the reality on the ground tells of quite a different narrative altogether. Why then, has the cost of acquiring a university degree continued to rise day by day?

To start with, we have to realize that the education sector is affected by the basic forces of demand and supply. Take for example, admission applications received at a public university in Kenya per intake. Recent statistics shows that there for a 100 students admitted for a particular programme, more than double the admitted are locked out.

This simple scenario illustrates a situation whereby the market for university education is faced with an excess demand and since universities are not able to expand overnight i.e. the supply of education facilities is not perfectly elastic, the only reasonable thing for them to do, is to increase their pricing for a degree so as to be able to meet the demand without upsetting the market. In so doing, the cost of a college degree rises and has continued to do so exponentially.

Of interest to us here, however, is why the sharp rise in demand for a college education? Here, we look at two things:

(1)Government Subsidies and Loans/Grants

When governments subsidize the cost of university education, this has the effect of making it less costly (to the student) and thus affordable. Parents and students interpret this to mean that it is now cheaper and thus many parents rush to get their children admitted. What they do not realize is that this has the net overall effect of raising the cost of that degree. This is how: When many students rush to be enrolled, yet the universities cannot expand the classrooms, the universities ends up increasing the fee for that particular programme so as to be admit only those students the classrooms can accommodate.

(2)Job Prospects

It is assumed that acquiring a college degree raises the chances of securing a job and thus many students rush to secure one again raising the demand and consequently the cost.

In addition, since the demand   for a degree continue to rise, universities has opted to invest not in education utilities but rather invested heavily in modern eateries and luxurious facilities like the state of the art swimming pools, gymnasiums, etc which have had the ultimate effect of raising even further, the cost of a degree without necessarily adding the value of that degree.

In this light, don’t you think students loans, government subsidies  etc serves to make education out of reach for the majority ?Or are they the necessarily evils that works a for a common good?

What is your take?

Am Dubois Maina.

The University of Nairobi.

A Letter To My Abaluhyia Uncles-Onguso Ochengo

Greetings from the son of your daughter bukhocha. I always begin by thanking you for giving my father a wife and giving me a mother! Here in Gusiiland, daughter has found plenty and we, the children of your daughter will inherit the priceless Gusii culture. However, we must not forget where our mother came from just because we stay in the land of the man who married your daughter. I believe my uncles are capable. The best orator in Kenya’s rich political history was my uncle-but do I say. 

ImbolamsianiKijanaWamalwa. A formidable fighter and invincible like the lion of Ford-Kenya which he wrestled from RailaOdinga upon Jaramogi’s death. In 2002, my uncle founded a formidable anti-Moi Alliance, National Alliance of Kenya together with Kibaki the husband of Lucy and Ngilu. The alliance was too powerful that Raila had to join it to form NARC. Wamalwa’s force was the force of my uncle’s. Who ever gave developed a phrase against Moi so memorable than ‘The Nyayo era was a great Error’? Who but my Khocha? I was proud of my uncles then as I want to be now. The vice-presidency was just a breath away from leading the country and statistics show that since 2002 three out of five of vice/deputy presidents have been Luhyia-my uncles. 3 out of 5! Do you know why you dominated the vice-presidency, you were the lions of Kenya who had the potential to take anything political if organized. Look not at census my uncles, people will lie that you are second or even third because they don’t want you to have the knowledge of your numbers. Khocha, there have been post-election violence in this country but pin-point to me one tribe that has ever been anti-Luhyia? Just one! You will find none. 

Whether you look in the direction of the lake or mountain, you are always in harmony with the whole country-no wonder my mother taught me to greet my uncles…’Mulembe or Mulembemwesi’ depending on the number. Peace is our greetings. Thank you such a rich inheritance. Khocha, your daughter gave my father and his people just four kids and the numbers of my father’s people are still small though we are soon hitting 1million voters. I know you are brave. August of every even year-…2008,2010,2012,2014, coward men must run from your land. A knife scares them away when you face it without pain-relievers when ‘Mulongo’ you sing. That is bravery. Only when I visit my khochas do I beheld the miracle of bull-fighting, cock fighting and how we call and catch the termites-khulangachiswa from the ground. 

My uncles were authorities and institutions to reckons. They said riswa, riswa and Musambwa became a religion. They said Kanu is dead (Martin shikuku) they were supported by a son from the land of my paternal great grandmother Kalenjin land (Jean M. Seroney-‘you need not substantiate the obvious’) and later KANU died in 1992. They said, the Nyayo era was a great era and Kanu was buried. Those are the uncles I knew. Those were my uncles. This letter from the slopes of Gusii is to remind you, my uncles, we miss the times you roared ‘SIMBA’ and defeated Raila. When you roared Era and error and the power matrix shifted. Let your son be proud of you again. Let him be proud of his roots. You gave me Heroes to look up to. You gave us Masinde, Shikuku, Wamalwa just to mention a few. Now no one sounds a hero to me. Some of your leaders are busy climbing the mountain and others are busy swimming in the lake. Now am forced to climbe the mountain because I do not know how to swim. 

My mother told me my uncles are not mountain climbers or swimmers. Let us go back to bull-fighting-no one will match us around here; maybe in Spain, let us instill the bravery we have in our body politick and sing Mulongo to State House with my uncle being the torch bearer or at worst the deputy of the torch-bearer.  I have seen potential in Musa wefwe-Wetangula but after climbing the mountain for years, he has a new hobby of swimming in the lake. Tell him we want to bull-fight. Our bulls want to fight. Shichemero and Luvambo-the great bulls want to fight. We want to live true to the clarion call of Mulongo. We are tired of eating fish we want our own chiswa. We are tired of following the cult of swimming, we have forgotten we had our own Msambwa. What divides us is our loyalty to others than ourselves. 

Bakhofubefwebalolambweeshinyweneshienywe but while our leaders were swimming, we were told our ancestors lied. Bakhochabange. If we unite, after Uhuru goes, we will sing the national Anthem in state house followed by ‘Mulongo’. We will eat our chiswa along state house road. If the people of the lake ask us why did we leave swimming, we will sing for them..”mwanawamaiumborerasina’. We will sing to the mountain climbers..’LubwereNasaeakhurinde’….Libalarinorinabaeriefwe. Eriefwe because I am the son of your daughter. Finally, bakhocha, sichienoshiaMasindeshiakendere-the spirit of Masinde visited. It whispered its prophecy of ‘from the lake to Mulembe’ is long overdue and the fact that the lake has failed to bring it home, may Masinde’s people sing Mulongo all the way to state house then will I grow up, give it to the people of my father, we will have had the numbers!

From: MwichukhuluwaAnyesinendeOdungawaLukingili. Mukhayomwene…inyumbayabaguriambinendebakhone-NambalebweneBusia County

Ochengo Onguso is a Graduate of Political Science and Public Administration and Philosophy from The University of Nairobi. He is also a Law student from the same institution.

He is the Chairman of the Board of Directors, Intellectus Consultancy

melchym1@gmail.com

Ochengonguso@intellectusconsultancy.com

Whether Cord Or Jubilee Referendum On Devolution Is Not An Option-Onguso Ochengo

In politics, if you do not care about yourself then trust individuals and not laws or institutions. I come from an impoverished county called Nyamira. A county that has only two tarmac roads. When it rains, I never go out of our compound for you cannot differentiate a farm from the road. No matter the vehicle, you will stagnate. When you come for my burial, let it not shock you where I was born. We set eyes on electricity 3 months ago and the only source of news used to be the radio. Even soccer ni kwa radio.

We fetch drinking water from the spring-direct from an exposed source. Irrigation is not an option thanks to God for the heavy rainfalls. Our coffee sector is crippled and the tea sector has been affected because of poor roads and the KTDA vehicles cannot collect tea leaves promptly making my mother and other tea farmers to lose many kilos of tea because the more the delay, the more moisture leaves lose and the more loss my poor kinsmen encounter. Education is a luxury, the general rule is Form four and the exception is University. Markets are pathetic and infrastructure a nightmare. Now let me give you the picture of Meru County. Electricity is a basic. Tarmac roads as many as our ‘paths’. Almost every homestead is fixed with two pipes, inlets and outlets of water for irrigation among other purposes. When I visited Meru during the last general elections, I knew the importance of raw power and resources. I am a good student of history. I have always followed keenly the story of the Kikuyu community and I can tell you that by 1963, they had built 58 independent schools owned by the Kikuyu community and later the government took over running of the institutions.

The first Kikuyu graduate was sent to South Africa for a BA using community funds. Long before any Kikuyu became a president, they knew what to do. On the same note, I have been nurtured by Luos. Born and raised amongst my best friends. Luos were equally organized under Jaramogi. I remember social hall, Ofafa Hall among other projects Luos owned as a community courtesy of their organization. Since I knew myself to be a Kisii, I have never heard any property we own or have ever owned as a community except the inheritance of land. Through devolution, the dream to develop as a community is real. We never owned a school as a community, now as a county we can, we never owned a hospital, now as a county we will, we never beheld the miracle of tarmac roads, and with devolution we can. Prof. Nying’uro used to tell us how during the Moi era Kalenjins had disproportionately many tarmac roads that they used to dry maize on the roads. While on my way to Meru, Thika road is not the only wonder but compared to my home I saw paradise…roads, electricity, booming business centres, well-built markets etc. 

I will not object on whichever basis a referendum that increases the resources to my community. Let us also enjoy good roads, maybe one will be called ‘Ochengo Super Highway’. Let us have electricity to discover our IT gurus, let us have irrigation systems, we help solve food deficiency in Kenya. Let us build better schools, attract better teachers, have better education to compete with the rest in the civil service. We need more resources. However, my tribe is not the will never be more important than our collectiveness. When we will have problems we cannot solve as a county, the national government must come in hand to help us as citizens. 

We cannot be self-sufficient and we need a national government that is strong. I want resources to my people but resources to counties should not be weakening of the national government but complementary for we must accept that the aim of governments is to ensure, social and economic development despite who controls resources. We cannot settle on an arbitrary figure 405 or 45%. This is why we need selfless economists, public finance experts, political scientists and lawyers to guide us. I have read the Bomas Draft Constitution (section 239 and 240) and the current constitution,2010(Article 202 and 203). The amount arrived at should take into consideration:

  1)   National interest.

  2)      National debt and obligation.

  3)      Needs and interests of the National Government

  4)      Emergencies or temporary needs.

  5)      Amount required for performance of devolved functions.

  6)      Fiscal capacity of the devolved counties

Resources cannot be devolved without commensurate functions being devolved. My county must develop but my country must be stable and my national government must be strong enough to wade off external aggression and to suppress internal disintegration. He who loves this country must support devolution based on the above parameters not arbitrariness. If you tell me 45% without telling me my national government will survive with 55% I WILL NOT SUPPORT. If you tell me 70% to counties and show me how the national government will survive with 30%, I WILL support. The means used to arrive at the percentage and mutual survival of Counties and the Nation will justify the end. 

Without such a criteria or even a better one, the calls for the referendum will be a fight against the national government just because you think the president comes from a particular region and you need to frustrate him. I am young and will be around for a while. Uhuru will not be the President forever, he may give us more without a referendum, but who cometh as president after he? If enshrined in law, every man shall be bound regardless who rules. Now we depend on the goodwill of Uhuru to have more than 15% and on the law to have 15%. Tomorrow we may have a president without goodwill, we must enshrine it not because Uhuru has denied us, but because we do not know what the future holds.Jubilee or Cord, counties must survive and the national government must survive. Achebe said, let the eagle perch and the hawk perch, whosever says to the other ‘don’t perch’ may his wing break!!!!!

Ochengo Onguso is a Graduate of Political Science and Public Administration and Philosophy from The University of Nairobi. He is also a Law student from the same institution.

He is the Chairman of the Board of Directors, Intellectus Consultancy

melchym1@gmail.com

Ochengonguso@intellectusconsultancy.com

The Fallacy of Kenyan Land Politics(part 2 The dossier)-Onguso Ochengo

To my friends the CORDed, land injustices is not about Jubilee but the whole nation. At the rate we are pointing figures we are losing it. Historical land injustices have been committed by many and we must be truthful in our dealings.  Those leaders who are in the opposition today benefitted from patronage and I will quote the Ndung’u report and Kenya Land Alliance report of Unjust Enrichment. The following is not my work but extracts from KLA-Unjust Enrichment and Ndung’u Report:

ON ODINGA FAMILY: (page 23)

Kenya Food and Chemical Corporation Limited: The Kenya Food and Chemical Corporation Limited of Kisumu,  more commonly known as the Kisumu Molasses Project was conceived in the 1970s and was  intended to manufacture gasohol from sugar cane molasses  produced by sugar factories in Nyanza and Western provinces. This controversial project was cited in the Ndung’u Report as an example of how State corporations were mismanaged , and ended up in receivership or liquidation which then paved the way for land and other assests to be sold at throw away prices or simply be allocated to favoured individuals. According to the Report, land for the project was compulsorily acquired by the government in 1976 at Ksh 4m.  The project then stalled in 1980 after hundreds of millions of shillings had been sunk into it. In 2001, the then Commissioner of Lands, S.S.K. Mwaita, illegally allocated the 112 hectares of the land meant for the corporation to a private company for Ksh.3.7 Million or Ksh. 33,000 per hectare. The Company, Spectre International Limited is associated with the Odinga family. At a conservative price of Ksh. 300,000 per acre, the land would have been worth Ksh. 83 million. The beneficiaries of this allocation may therefore have been unjustly enriched by Ksh 80 million.

ON KALONZO MUSYOKA:

Nothing did I find in both reports. 

ON FRED GUMO: (page 22 of report)

Central Bank of Kenya -  purchased a plot reserved as a public parking off Haile Selassie avenue for Ksh300million . The plot had earlier been illegally  allocated to a company associated with Fred Gumo- the  sitting  MP for Westlands and former assistant minister.

FRANCIS NYENZE-(page 17 of report)

Who benefited most from the illegal allocations of KIE land? The single largest beneficiary of the allocations was  Viscount Holdings. While the average allocation was 0.2 acres, this one company received 14.66  acres valued at  58.6 million in Nairobi LR 209/94699478.The directors of Viscount Holdings  are Kiran Kotecha and Jayesh Morjario. Past directors include Monarch Insurance  Company. Other “luminaries” as they are referred to in Kenya’s political lexicon  were: Benjamin Kipkulei  who was allocated 10 of the 31 plots in Eldoret; Hosea Kiplgat was allocated 5 plots of the 34 plots in Kabarnet in addition to 2 plots in Eldoret. Other prominent beneficiaries include-  John Lokorio ( Kabarnet),  LawrenceMasaviru ( 2 plots in Kakamega) , Joshua Angatia ( Kakamega), Noah arap Too ( Kericho), Japhet k Muasya ( 2 plots in Kitui), Francis Nyenze ( 2 plots in Kitui), Prof Raphael K Munavu (Tala- 1plot), John Sambu( 3 plots in Eldoret) 

The full list of allottees can be found at http.//www.knchr.org/ndungu/table3.

The above are but few who play critical roles in the opposition. Part of the Ndung’u and KLA-Unjust enrichment reports recommend: Where a State corporation sold land at below market value or purchased land at exorbitant prices, theprime movers of such sale (directors of the corporation, original allottees, other public officials or brokersand professionals) should be investigated and prosecuted. . The money lost by the State Corporation as aresult of such purchase should be recovered from those who were unjustly enriched.

I will not justified land grabbing by officials of Jomo’s government or Moi’s government which was notorious with loss of parastatal land. All am saying is CORD’s leadership is part of the historical injustices and I dislike hypocrisy. If Jubilee has thieves, Cord has their own thieves!!!!! You can down play the magnitude but thieving is thieving. Until we start telling each other the truth, partial vendetta will only be informed by ethnic hatred for the reason of political expedience.

Ochengo Onguso is a Graduate of Political Science and Public Administartion and Philosophy from The University of Nairobi. He is also a Law student from the same institution.

He is the Chairman of the Board of Directors, Intellectus Consultancy

melchym1@gmail.com

Ochengonguso@intellectusconsultancy.com

The Fallacy of Kenyan Land Politics-Onguso Ochengo

I begin by acknowledging that I am not always right but I write this in defense of reason. Kenyans are a bunch of funny people and I write to my friends. I once told Charles Mark Dienya that I have a passion for Land issues being one of my strengths while studying law-Property Law. The fallacy with those who shout historical injustices is they see the speck in other people’s eyes and not the logs in their eyes. I know land issues are very dangerous but I must be bold and speak on behalf of reason. The land injustices have been construed as if they originated from a particular tribe or region.

However, The trouble begun with colonialism. From communal land ownership, an oxymoron not Known before in the name of private ownership of land was introduced by the whites. African lands were alienated and given to the whites. Lord Delamere was awarded over 100,000 hectares in 1901 becoming one of the major beneficiaries of our land. To avoid legal jargons, I will only quote the 1915 Crown Lands Ordinance that removed African rights to own Land and placed it on the crown. Africans were termed as tenants at the will of the crown.

This was confirmed in 1921-3 case of R v Isaac Muritowa Indagara and another. Chief Justice Barth in his ruling whether Africans had rights over land, affirmed that the rights belonged to the Crown following the 1915 Ordinance, Kenya Annexation Order 1921 and Kenya colony Order of 1921. Before then, whites had displaced Blacks e.g. the Maasai from Laikipia to dryer parts through the 1904 Laibon Lenana Agreement and subsequent agreements in 1908-11 which were disputed by the an Ole Njogu in a case in 1911-R v Ole Njogu. This continued and resulted to the White Highlands which were operated right up to 1964. When independence came, there was an agreement between the Kenyan Government-basically KANU- and the British government that the land of expropriates was to be bought by the Kenyan government. The pretext was that the Whites had improved the quality of the land through mechanization and rehabilitation-a fact which as an African I contest. Britain was very cunning in dealing with the Kenyan government. I was shocked to learn that we were given a loan by Britain and do you know how things were done? The money never came to us.

 Every British citizen who was leaving Kenya was being paid on arrival in Britain. We never touched the money. The Whites did not just fly out and leave the Lands. No! We paid to get our Lands back. The government had agreed to that and remember Kenyatta was the president and  Jaramogi the Vice President. Kenyatta held the view that the masses cannot be given the land for free as the debt-through the loan we had been given-was to be borne by all Kenyans. Kenyatta had a strong stand; HAKUNA CHA BURE-nothing for Free. The leftists within KANU led by BildadKaggia had a different ideology. People to be given lands for free. Later in 1966, with the inception of Kenya People’s Union by Jaramogi et al, Odinga in the KPU manifesto had it as a priority that the landless Kenyans were to be given Lands for free. The status quo remained and some MAU MAU warriors threatened to go back to the forests. After 1969 incident in Central Nyanza-when Jomo had gone to open ‘Russia’ Hospital-now dubbed Jaramogi Oginga Odinga General Hospital (where I was born), relations between jaramogi and Jomo were polarized completely and ethnic balkanization begun officially. This was after Mboya’s death and burial.

The Mt. Region took Oaths not to let the flag leave the Mountain and the dissidents were given land to leave the forests. Settlement schemes came to play in order to settle the squatters. The exercise continued but as expected, politics came to play and big boys saw a business opportunity in settlement schemes. The lands earmarked for the exercise were former white highlands. It is not that people were ferried from central to Rift Valley as alleged. The truth is land pressure in Central had started biting way back in colonial times. The hut tax that were imposed by the whites had to be paid and the only way to raise the money was through working in white highlands. With the advent of MAU MAU, the lashes on Gikuyu EMbu and Meru were scorching and many opted for Rift Valley. It was difficult to trust Kikuyus to work for a white in Central because the Kikuyu were in the forefront of fighting colonialism as they were affected firsthand. As they left central, colonial Chiefs took over the lands left behind.

Land belonging to those who were in the forests and those who went to work in Rift Valley was taken and later registered In the names of the chiefs following the implementation of the Swynnerton Plan of 1954 that recommended individualization of Land in order to improve productivity as opposed to communal ownership. Land was Moi era, Land was the loyalty currency. Rewarding of politicians was the order of the day and public lands were lost. Parastatals lost lands. It is only in 1992 that ethnic clashes over land were witnessed in Rift Valley since independence. This concerned the Gikuyu not supporting Moi  Presidency in 1992. The issue has escalated to date. The white highlands in Laikipia-from where the Maasai were displaced became wheat farms for prominent figures in the country including one from my Kisii community…

Tommorrow we give you the second and last part of this article. We delve into the Ndungu and the Kenya Land Alliance Report of Unjust Enrichment! Youl be surprised on who are the major perpetrators of land injustices in Kenya!Nothing but the truth! Keep your eyes open and your brain limitless!

Ochengo Onguso is a Graduate of Political Science and Public Administartion and Philosophy from The University of Nairobi. He is also a Law student from the same institution.

He is the Chairman of the Board of Directors, Intellectus Consultancy

melchym1@gmail.com

Ochengonguso@intellectusconsultancy.com

The Cult of the Individual:The Unmaking Of ODM and CORD-Onguso Ochengo

I will refer to Nikita Khrushchev’s speech of 25^th February 1956 to the 20^th Congress of the Communist party of USSR. The characteristics of a cult of the individual can be deduced to include elevating one person and transforming him to a superman possessing supernatural characteristics akin to those of a god. He further says such a man supposedly knows everything, sees everything, thinks for everyone, can do anything and is infallible in his behavior. The practical consequences of this grave situation include violation of the principle of collective party direction and accumulation of immense and limitless power in the hands of one person. Stalin, who is referred to in the speech acted not through persuasion, explanation and patient cooperation with the people but by imposing his concepts and demanding absolute submission to his opinion and whosoever opposed these concepts or tried to prove his own viewpoint and the correctness of his own position was doomed to removal from the leadership collective and to subsequent moral and physical annihilation Stalin originated the phrase ‘Enemy of The People’-similar to the title of Henry Ibsen’s play. The term ‘Enemy of The People’ automatically made it unnecessary that the ideological errors of a man or men engaged in controversy be proven. It made it impossible the making of an individual’s views known on this or that issue. The above sums up the characteristics and consequences of the cult of the individual.

Turning back home, ODM has a replica of what happened in Stalin’s USSR Communist Party. USSR had Stalin, ODM has its Stalin too-Raila Odinga. The name ‘baba’ can be traced in 2005 when Raila was campaigning against the Wako Draft. When his supporters were asked why they are opposed to the Wako Draft, they replied ‘Baba amesema’. When asked if they have read the constitution, they replied ‘baba amesoma’. When he alleges plots to assassinate him, even when stage-managed like in 2002, they say he knows everything. If he says elections are going to be rigged, he sees everything. He is a superman who is infallible.

The principle of collective party direction is no more in ODM. The recent Saba Saba Rallies provide prove of this assertion. An example is the protests of Hon. Richard Onyonka who faulted the ODM and CORD leader for not consulting the party leaders and those elected under the party. If Raila says it, that is the party position-that is imposing concepts and demanding absolute submission to his opinion and those opposed to the view and try to explain the correctness of their view are doomed to removal from leadership of the party and moral annihilation. An example is the removal of minority chief whip in the National Assembly because of his stand on the Saba Saba rallies.

Raila and his amplifiers have developed terms akin to Stalin’s an ‘Enemy of the people’. Kalonzo was the first victim when he differed with Raila in 2007 on whether the flag-bearer of ODM-Kenya should be chosen. Kalonzo was tagged ‘Msaliti’-Traitor and the tag stuck until he formed a coalition with Raila ahead of 2013 elections. If Kalonzo takes a stand opposed to Raila’s, the tag will be back with a bang! When Dr. Kidero held views opposed to Raila’s, he was dressed down in a rally and he had to toe the line. Another term that has been developed recently is so and so is a ‘mole’ and to be precise a ‘Jubilee Mole’. Despite your loyalty to the party and the party leader except to the extent of expressing your views as a God-given right to mankind, despite the work you have done for the party, when you differ with ODM/CORD leader you are tagged a Jubilee mole. It is difficult to fathom the victimization of Hon. Ababu Namwamba as a Jubilee Mole. The terms ‘Msaliti’ and ‘Mole’ automatically make it unnecessary that the ideological errors of a man engaged in controversy be proven. When Caroli Omondi spoke about ODM’s undemocratic tendencies, ODM supporters just branded him a mole and no one asked why he made the allegations. When William Ruto did part with Raila costing him (Raila) the presidency-as majority view it-Ruto is seen as a ‘msaliti’ by ODM supporters. In summary, when you are with Raila, despite your political sins, you are Baptized in the name of infallible baba, in the name of Odinga and in the name of Odinga alone. When you defer with him, you become a sinner-a watermelon, Msaliti-traitor and a Mole who requires sanctification by Raila to be saved and enter the political kingdom of the righteous.

This is the unmaking of ODM. It is a cult. The cult of the individual. People’s consciences are captive. For survival, Raila thinks for you, sees everything-for you, knows everything-for you and can do anything. He is infallible, a superman and the democracy he supposedly fought for is in trial in his own house and coalition-ODM/CORD and not by anyone but by his own creation-his cult.

Politics will punish he who uses the masses and imposes his will on the masses devoid of consultation and as Lenin rightly put it: only he who believes in the people, who submerges himself in the fountain of the living creativeness of the people, will win and retain power.

Ochengo Onguso is a Graduate of Political Science and Public Administartion and Philosophy from The University of Nairobi. He is also a Law student from the same institution.

He is the Chairman of the Board of Directors, Intellectus Consultancy

melchym1@gmail.com

Ochengonguso@intellectusconsultancy.com

Cord’s 2017 and Beyond Strategy Through The Referendum-Onguso Ochengo.

Considering the idiosyncratic variable (a mode of behavior or way of thought specific to an individual) as a factor in political decision making, Political scientists have agreed that the old tend to be conservative in their thinking while the young tend to be radical and adventurous in arriving at decision. In other words, the older the generation, the higher the tendency to maintain the status quo i.e. the lower the likelihood to change their modus operandi (mode of operation). Having introduced the fundamental presumption in my hypothesis, I now turn to the analysis based on it.

The fact remains that the players in Raila’s 2007 campaigns from his backyard will be the ones spinning ball in 2017/18 (factors like natural end of life held constant-call it ceteris paribus-for the learned). On the strategy end, I expect to meet Prof. Larry Gumbe, Prof. Anyang’ Ny’ongo, Prof. Peter Wanyande and Dr. Adams Oloo. On the political front I expect Jakoyo Midiwo, Otieno Kajwang’, Dr. Oburu Odinga as the major political decision makers. All the above named were part of the 2007 election campaigns-campaign strategy development and execution in Raila’s camp.

The 2005 election was very key in propelling Raila to being the force he was in 2007. The above being relatively conservative in their ideologies it is highly probable that the strategy they will deploy henceforth will be akin to the 2005 to 2007 strategy.

Rule 1: Isolate the GEMA voting Bloc

In 2005 referendum, almost all regions voted ‘NO’ to the constitution except the GEMA bloc which voted ‘YES’. This helped the opposition propel the ideology that the GEMA region always votes against the national interest and spirit. This gave impetus to the 41 against 1 strategy. So serious was the strategy that it found its way to the 2013 presidential debate and in 2014 in the so called Boycott of goods and services.

The strategy is to sneak the 40 percent of national revenue to be allocated to counties. This will be the main issues in the referendum and even if William Ruto says ‘NO’, the forces of devolution in Rift Valley are too strong that it might hurt his standing in the Kalenjin community. The likelihood of Rift Valley voting for the referendum even without the blessings of the DP is very high. Other regions can be galvanized. With the election of Moses Kuria, it is obvious that the president has more grip on his backyard than any politician has in any region. 

The likelihood of the GEMA bloc voting with as the president directs is very high and CORD intends it to be so. This will be a renewed prove on the CORD side that the GEMA region has voted on its own against the rest. The referendum will be an isolation mission. It will not be supported or opposed based on ideology-my argument is based on how much it is already supported and opposed along coalition lies even before the referendum questions can be formulated.

Rule 2: Use the referendum as a yardstick of government popularity:

The voting pattern of the country in 2005 referendum was identical to the voting trend in 2007 presidential elections save for the Kamba voting bloc which was sliced by Kalonzo when Raila exited ODM-Kenya (it is not Kalonzo who exited contrary to popular knowledge). Cord will use the referendum to create a niche for itself. If it wins, for CORD it will be an affirmation that elections were rigged but their patience for 2017 will bring a replica of the referendum victory. 

The intense expectation by cord supporters will be a time bomb. After the referendum, the government will have to be worried about political survival and development may be compromised-all this to cord’s political expedience in relation to showing the government the failure card come 2017/8.

Rule 3: Further Isolation in implementation of strategy:

Cord has matured politically. In 2013, the attacks on the Kalenjin and Kikuyu simultaneously had the resultant effect of uniting the two further, both as victims of Odingaism. Now the strategy has changed in the effort of wooing the Rift votes. Rift valley was the most pivotal voting bloc and the most valuable in Raila’s political history and with value and loss comes nostalgia. Raila has rolled his sleeves to ensure he penetrates the rift valley once more. During the Saba Saba rally at Uhuru Park, selective criticism was the order of the day with every speaker castigating the Mt. Kenya personalities and none-absolutely none, castigated any leader from Kalenjin land as directly as they did with Mt. Kenya. The mentality is that no matter how much lenient cord can be towards Mt. Kenya region, penetration is mission impossible hence by hitting the region harder, CORD has all to gain from other regions and absolutely nothing to lose from the Mt. Kenya region.

However, Rift Valley is not under lock and key per se as CORD views it as a potential defector and game changer. This can only be propelled through the referendum. Devolution will be everything in the referendum and the referendum campaigns will be the platform for creating in-roads in Rift Valley. Isaac Ruto and Alfred Keter will be the deadliest canons for the mission. Raila’s hopes in penetrating the Rift explain the silence CORD has adopted on attacking partners to Jubilee’s coalition-whether this will translate to 2017 is a matter of speculation. In the campaigns, therefore, further isolation of Mt. Kenya will be the end sought.

Rule 4: Is either us alone, us and you sharing, or none of us at all:

The 2017 elections will be the litmus test on our brotherhood as a country. Whether the country learnt a lesson in 2007/8 or not we shall have an answer then. In 2002, Kijana Wamalwa-peace be upon him-said there are two groups in Kenya, Railamaniac and Railaphobic. How true that was is a discussion for another day. With the trend as outlined above-isolation topping the list-the 2017 elections may not evade the sad scales of Kikuyumaniac and Kikuyuphobic (read GEMA). Despite the region of Uhuru’s running mate, people will not see the Deputy presidency but the president himself and the phobics will be saying ‘Not Again’ as the Maniacs will be saying ‘Retention’. With the balkanization taking place, a close race is inevitable in 2017. IEBC-with the same commissioners as it is-if not removed as expected, whichever results it releases, however credible, will be disputed by CORD. The trend of undermining the courts especially the Supreme Court has been too persistent to lack meaning in the world of political expedience. 

You don’t accept results of an electoral body whose credibility you have rejected for five years and take your dispute to a court you lost faith in five years ago(2013-2017). Power sharing is archaic and will sound like a song from a power hungry individual-a tag Raila has to fight and has been fighting since 1982. The option remains one, a country divided in the middle that did not reconcile after 2007/8 and cannot share power, can only be forced to form a transitional government to do what ‘was not done and supposedly cannot be done’ by either divide. CORD will call for a transitional government hence the ‘is either us alone, us and you sharing or none at all’ strategy. For in a transitional government cord has to be represented equally.

Jubilee can stop all this from happening. Read the next article for more.

Ochengo Onguso is a Graduate of Political Science and Public Administartion and Philosophy from The University of Nairobi. He is also a Law student from the same institution.

He is the Chairman of the Board of Directors, Intellectus Consultancy

melchym1@gmail.com

Ochengonguso@intellectusconsultancy.com

Don’t demonize Kikuyus, We are all tribalists-Onguso Ochengo,LLB, UoN

Uhuru inherited a government that was run like a tribal tuckshop with tribalism taking the place of nationhood. One thing I disliked about the current opposition during the campaigns was the tribal emotions it arose against tribes other than the leadership style which affected even the tribe they castigated in general. In my class of Voter Behaviour, Dr. Asingo taught me of a rational voter-a voter who votes where he/she is likely to benefit and advance his/her own goals in life-whether he has calculated the costs and benefits rightly or wrongly.

With the hate speeches aimed at the Kikuyu community, it is only rational to expect a member of the community to vote for a strong candidate from his region or one that looks friendly than one that criss-crosses the country arousing emotions against own tribe in general without making a distinction between the elite in the establishment and the hoi polloi which the Kikuyu call ahoi-the class many belong just like many Kenyans. You cannot tell Kenyans that Kikuyus are always right and the rest are always wrong just the way you cannot rightly put that Kikuyus are always wrong and the rest are always right.

Being good or bad is a moral judgment and he who has no sin let him cast the first stone. Kenyans in a fallacious generality can only be compared to the mob in the Biblical analogy. Every tribe has its sins as tribes are made of individuals who-for those who believe in the deity-are sinners. On the scales of morality, I could try be an umpire and may I be judge, a judge with sin too. A political class from one tribe mobilizing ‘its’ tribe against the rest of the tribes is as evil as a political class from the rest of the tribes mobilizing‘their’ tribes against one tribe…and not even the Machiavellian script maxim of the end justifying the means can sanctify such an immorality.

All have sinned, even this judge. All the same the difference is on the sin apportionment and allotment; and the saying goes that the fundamentals of sinful nature are so similar that the difference is the same. Now portions aside for another day for as the House Committee probing Mumo Matemu did not have a passionometer to measure his level of passion for the KACC job, I am in want of a sinometer to measure the levels of sin amongst Kenyans.

Truth be told, some individuals with Kikuyu names are very chauvinistic and drunk with history but modesty in pride defines a victor in my Ochengoism. The role GEMA (GikuyuEMbuMeru) played in fighting for independence in Kenya with ripples of freedom to all East African nations cannot be underplayed but to ignore the efforts of other figures from all walks of life is not only foolishness of a cock refusing its origins being the egg and attributing its genesis to stones with the intention of looking strong-especially if the cock is in Wafula’s compound.

As charity begins at home (though even without a home charity has to begin somewhere) I will name Otenyo-the Kisii anti-colonialism warrior whose head a member of the county assembly of Kisii is petitioning the British government to return to Kenya, Lawrence sagini, Mekatilili wa Mwenza, Elijah Masinde-of the Msambwa fame, The PinyOwacho movement and my role model Jaramogi Oginga Odinga-no matter how much he concealed, he was honest unlike some people I know. The above named hail not from the mountain-some from the lake, some nears Gusii Hill-land and my uncles from Luhyia land-the Mulembe House i.e. House of Peace.

According to my theory, the spirit of nationhood demands that the efforts of every citizen are recognized and appreciated, however small, towards the nation building regardless of tribe.When you recognize Kenyatta as the father of the nation, it is right you recognize Jaramogi with his staunch clarion call of ‘Uhuru na Kenyatta’-which has literally been interpreted to mean Jaramogi left the sit (read presidency) for Kenyatta (actually, my reading tells me that Tom Mboya being the Sec-Gen of KANU and James Gichuru being the Chairman of KANU were ready to form government after the 1957 elections with Kenyatta still in prison and it took Jaramogi’s strong and popular stand that stopped them. Every KANU Candidate had to sign that he was ready to step down for Kenyatta once released…thanks to Jaramogi’s mobilization skills). When you have a Kenyatta Avenuein the CBD of the capital city, it is right to have even a lane called Jaramogi lane within Nairobi. If I were Shakespeare I could say, tarry a little, I talk to the CORD coalition.

Do you remember, Bildad Kaggia, the man whom the first president asked what have you done unto yourself? The lieutenant who fought alongside Jaramogi for land rights and the first among Kenyatta’s government to resign from cabinet to protest inaction and ineptitude of government to respond to the people’s land needs! Tarry a little, after the Tom Mboya death, and funeral do you remember the Kikuyu had to make an oath to protect the flag and the flag shall not leave the house of Mumbi? You know why, not because the government was very popular but because the hatred against the tribe had piled and I cannot dispute that self-preservation is the first law of nature; and so it is in the first law of politics as per my theory.

No sooner had the hoi polloi taken oath than the establishment dumped them. Barely five years later in 1975 all and sundry who care about economics of the bourgeoisie and proletariat remember the ‘maai ni maruru’ movement in central after the assassination of J.M. Kariuki-the first African Kenyan to own a private Jet. According to the rules of the establishment-what you call assassination is called vaporization- which is the last stage which makes the headache disappear completely except posthumously. The ‘maai ni maruru’ was evidence of the wrath the establishment unleashes against its purported tribe. The Kikuyu had their share of tasting bitter waters from the larger pot from which many tribes have so far drunk. Also remember J.M. Kariuki was a Kenyan but for this article call him a Kikuyu.

Let us jump the stones of history about GEMA ya NjengaKarume, Kiambu Mafia versus Nyayo and the Kabarnet Syndicate and stop at clarion call for multi-party democracy. Just the way you remember Raila for vibrancy and ‘the from Jail to Norway’ exile during the time, you have to remember Charles Rubia and Kenneth Matiba who fought in freedom, to jail and then to hospitals abroad for treatment. Yes, Rubia and Matiba Kenyans they were then and now but for this passage call them Kikuyu. I cannot tell the misfortunes of FORD and the eventual fallout but look at the figures-Kikuyus voted for either Matiba or Kibaki and I will not endeavor to discuss the Chania river politics of division with opposing sides having headquarters at Nyeri and Kiambu with the Independence Nairobi Mayoral seat being the source of the trouble. Luos voted man to man for Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Kalenjins voted for Strong Man Daniel Toroitich Moi as our Kenya Social Congress-George Moseti Anyona performed poorly in Kisii compared to KANU as a result of the Simeon Nyachae factor who supported Moi despite their cold relations preceding the elections. Come 1997, Raila’s NDP got all 20 parliamentary seats in Luo Nyanza and the Luo voted man to man, Kibaki ran with Central Province-the Kikuyu and Meru vote, Moi did his best with the KAMATUSA vote and Wamalwa won the hearts of many Luhyia voters not forgetting Masaa ya Ngilu and the Kamba magic.

 So far all the majority tribes have the same voting trend up to 1997. Come 2002 the mathematics had to change. NAK is formed by Ngilu+Kibaki+Wamalwa=KambaLuhyia and Kikuyu voting basket. Later, Raila and his NDP join NAK and Nyachae’s Ford People follows suit with disgruntled KANU members filling the NARC hive. Before the Kibaki Tosha-Uhuru Park Rally, at Nairobi Serena Hotel, Joel Omino was busy brokering a deal between Nyachae and Raila with Fred Matiang’i-the current Cabinet Secretary for ICT and Charles Nyachae-the current CIC Chairman acting on behalf of Ford-People. Raila had accepted the MoU to support the elder Nyachae for Presidency but no sooner had he left Serena, than he dumped our Simeon Nyachae for Kibaki the reasons being: discreetly, Raila wanted Prime Minister position and having the President-Nyachae and PM-Raila-from the same region and province is political suicide and implausible move, and secondly, have Nyachae as the candidate and Kikuyus will Vote for Uhuru or Uhuru and Kibaki if Kibaki could not have stuck with the NARC but he had struck a good deal with Wamalwa-whom Raila feared-and Ngilu.

Had Raila walked out and vied for presidency as RailaOdinga in 2002, don’t tell me Kikuyus could have overwhelmingly voted for him or that Luos could have overwhelmingly voted for Kibaki. What happened in 2002 is what Ochengoism calls proxy-elections. Luos elected Raila the Prime Minister but the only way was by voting for Kibaki. Luhyia voted for the Wamalwa Vice Presidency but the Only way was by voting for Kibaki.

Kibaki was not voted because he was Kikuyu but because he was the best bet to defeat Uhuru and by then anti-nyayoism was more of a factor than tribalism and the tribal card came to play just to defeat nyayo and his ‘project’ and nothing else. Just like in 2013, Kalenjins voted for Ruto’s Deputy Presidency and the only way was through voting Uhuru as the president. In 2002, 88%of Kisiis voted for Simeon Nyachae to be president and the entire then 10 Gusii constituency were filled by Nyachae’s Ford-People MPs.

Not that Kikuyus are the only notorious tribe, all of us are and the more we hide the truth through partisan Political Science Departments and Analyses, the more the dream of a united country where sons and daughters of this great republic shall not vote, be voted, served, employed, sacked, promoted, demoted, married or divorced on the basis of tribe shall forever remain elusive as it is now. Not until we accept, that in voting all tribes have sinned and no one is without sin to righteously cast the first stone, our country shall be divided forever and ever more! May it not be so! AMEN!